Pendulum Swing: Are the Conservatives a Dying Breed?

As the numbers begin to roll out post-election here in Canada, we'll begin to develop a more detailed picture about who is voting for which party. One thing that is striking for me is the beginning of a real age gap politically, and a general move to a centre-left, left position as the electorate gets younger.

The results of Conservative success in Saskatchewan tells me two things. One, that the population there is aging, and that the NDP is appealing to younger voters, and largely urban ones. Again the situation in Saskatchewan is probably more complex than simply that, but I think a lot of that movement to the Conservatives is based on its social conservative appeal.

The NDP is the most socially progressive party in Canada. The older NDP was based far more heavily on fighting for the worker side of the worker/owner divide. Those kinds of class lines are far more blurred these days than they used to be.

Today small businesses of vastly unusual complexity in all sectors of society are appearing with contract and sub-contract work becoming more and more common. The old ideological divisions of worker/owner no longer hold, and so an older generation looks to “traditional“ values that harken back to when they were younger. Something older folks can understand, and it is a constituency the current Conservative party is able to appeal to.

One of my biggest beefs with the NDP is what I see as it's far too close ties with organized labour unions. While unions are an important foil to the abuses of workers by large corporations, they are also dinosaurs, who's hierarchical structure is rife with corruption and nepotism. But go back a decade and even suggesting a breaking of those ties would have been met with horror from many NDP faithful.

The NDP have seen a modest revival under Jack Layton, who has taken the party in a very socially progressive direction. His emphasis is on diversity both ethnically and also by encouraging far greater gender parity (while better than all the other parties, still only in the low 30% range). But while emphasizing a socially progressive agenda, I think he is alienating old line NDP of the Bill Blakie variety.

Frankly, I think it's a sacrifice the NDP should make. Because what is becoming clear from the election results, is that the Conservative Party constituency is solidly founded (at least for this election), on a much older senior citizen population. A population which is much more likely to vote, but one which is also rapidly dying off.

The Conservatives, however, have a much longer road ahead. Their core is founded on free market fiscal and social conservative principles. In most of his writing Harper has emphasized the notion of tradition and small government conservatism, while at the same time suggesting that the best way to market those things to a broader population, is by de-emphasizing them; by disguising them so as to avoid alienating voters. It's a losing bargain.

The younger crowd, while perhaps less politically aware, is very media savvy. They have a far greater ability to parse marketing-speak, and they also have access to far more types of media than simply the mainstream presentation of major networks and newspapers. Most will actively seek out numerous alternative voices in order to develop their own unique montage of world events and politics.

The neo-conservative marketing conventions are already old, and the fact that once in power they and their ideas have failed so miserably in application, is already damnation enough for most people with any sense, particularly those with any sense of politics and the goings on in the world. So the Conservative Party of Canada is already going in the wrong direction for most young people. They have, as they have shown in this election, only lies, half-truths and misdirections to use to appeal to a broad base of voters. It didn't work despite voters only having a corrupt incumbent government to vote for in it's place.

While I think the NDP and to a lesser extend the Greens have an enormous battle ahead to actually get their constituency into the polls, f they should we will begin to see a real shift in Canadian politics.

The Conservatives on the other hand are going to see their constituency literally disappear as they die off. The question for the Conservatives is, how can they move more toward the centre, particularly as the centre starts to move more toward the left? I think this election signals the bare beginning of that pendulum swing.

The Canadian Alliance, with the merger of the right, essentially gobbled up the Progressive Conservatives, and purged themselves of the progressive Red Tory wing. I'm beginning to wonder if they have enough people in the party to shift it back to the centre, because if they don't, I think we've just seen the climax of this nation's hard right-wing ideologues.