Turning Point: Iraq as Vietnam

Over the past week there have been a number of escalating incidents in Iraq that have led to a huge increase in violence. The substantial difference this time is that the majority of the violence involves radical elements of the Shia community. The Shia have previously confined themselves to railing against the Americans, but no longer.

One of the dangers for the occupation forces is that this violence could draw all the Shia militias into insurgency actions. If this were to happen it would almost certainly require additional troops be sent to Iraq. But the greatest danger would be a coordination between the Shia and Sunni militias in attacks against the occupation forces. Instead of the civil war between different religious groups that the American occupation has been predicting should they leave, we could see the gradual alliance of Iraqis against the occupiers.

Most journalists trace the initial spark for the Shia violence to the shutting down of a radical Shia newspaper by the Americans. This led to a series of violent confrontations.

At the same time the Sunni population, who have until now comprised the majority of the insurgents, has also seen an increase in violence. The most heavily covered of these by the mainstream media being the killings in Falluja of four American military "contractors", and the American response. A response, that by all accounts, is an all out military attack, the likes of which has not been seen since the American declared an end of the war.

The upturn in violence has prompted many in the US to compare the Iraq War with the war in Vietnam. Should the Shia and the Sunni communities begin to act in conjunction with each other, I agree that the so-called Vietnamization of the Iraq conflict could gradually develop.

But one of the many things important to remember about Vietnam is that the conflict was far longer than just the major American military involvement in the 1960s. Vietnam was colonized by the French in the 19th century. It was briefly conquered by Japan during the WWII era, and then returned to the French. The resistance in Vietnam began in earnest with Allied support against the Japanese occupation. With the return of the French after the defeat of Japan, the Vietnamese resistance turned its attention to getting rid of the French, and later the Americans. There was a sustained period of some 30 to 40 years of violent military action, most of it in the form of guerilla attacks. Forty years is a long time for the development of a resistance movement, and it is wise to keep this sense of time in perspective when comparing Iraq to Vietnam, and to the development of a coordinated Iraqi resistance to the American led occupation.

However, what is clear, is that due to the incompetence of those in charge of the American occupation of Iraq, specifically the Bush Administration, the gradual trend in Iraq is toward the development of coordinated Iraqi resistance against the occupation. The reasons for this are many, but they largely comprise the American's inability to provide security and even a modest amount of reliable civic services, such as electricity, water and sanitation to the larger Iraqi population. In fact, that lack of security isn't simply that the Americans don't protect Iraqis, but that the American military routinely kills innocent civilians, as scared young American troops shoot first and ask questions later. Yes, Iraqis know one of the reasons the Americans invaded Iraq was to secure its oil reserves, and that does colour their perception of the Americans. But it is the danger and hardships of Iraqis' day-to-day lives that impacts them the most.

People like myself in the wealthy west sometimes seem to have a hard time grasping the importance of civic services and the rule of law in so-called civilized society. We make a lot of noise about "freedom" and "democracy" without really seeming to understand the foundation on which those treasures rest. We take the foundation for granted. But how can you be free when you worry about getting shot every time you step outside your door? How can you concern yourself with voting, when you have to spend most of your days scrounging for food and water?

Last year prior to the Iraq invasion, I had a number of arguments with people over the sheer stupidity of the coming war. But my basic concern, and the root of my opposition, had little to do with the horror of war, even though in my mind that was reason enough not to invade. My primary concern was that, while I felt the Bush Administration would win an invasion and depose Saddam, they would not find peace, because they clearly had no understanding of just how massive an undertaking they were about to engage in. (See my earlier post "Iraq, It's All in the Details")

Forget the history of UN enforced sanctions that had caused the deaths of half a million of Iraqi children to malnutrition and poor health care. Forget the American betrayal of the Shia after having encouraged them to rise up against Saddam, only to have the Americans stand idle while Saddam massacred the rebels. Forget even the innocent civilians killed during the invasion. The Bush Administration showed with their handling of the war in Afghanistan, just how little they understood of the notion of nation building.

Unfortunately my concerns have all proven to have been well founded. I want to clearly note that I take absolutely no joy in this. It will mean incalculable carnage for Americans, and an even greater horror for Iraqis. In fact, I suspect innocent civilians around the world will suffer at the hands of terrorists the war in Iraq inspires.

What we've seen in Iraq in the past week is simply a surge in an escalating conflict. The Bush Administration will likely react by doing what they have continued to do, avoid military engagement as much as possible with the exception of an occasional organized operation against a publicized target. Meanwhile the Iraqi insurgents will continue to gradually evolve into a more coordinated movement, much as the Vietnamese over the course of 40 years developed an organized resistance to their occupiers.